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Мнение23 сентября 2021, 19:51
Sergey Shpilkin
Electoral trends researcher

Here is the picture with data from 96,840 polling stations (107.9 million registered voters out of 109.2 million known to CEC).

Whole Russia 

On the left is the chart of votes given for parties by 1% turnout intervals. The thin line is the chart of votes for all parties except the United Russia (UR), scaled so that it coincides with the UR chart at an early stage. With an assumption (which is not fully accurate) that all falsifications for UR originate from stuffing, the shaded area represents the amount of stuffing. 

On the right are shares received by parties depending on turnout by polling stations, where each polling station is a set of dots of different colours, one colour per party. The dense core represents the presumably unfalsified polling stations. The centre of the UR core is established via Minimum Covariance Determinant method, where polling stations were attributed weights by the number of voters, the cut-off threshold 50% (the ellipsis shows the cut-off dots). Correspondingly, the UR core centre coordinates help to estimate the real turnout and the real UR outcome. 

At unfalsified polling stations, the turnout is 38% on average (like in 2016), and UR gets between 31% and 33% by two estimations (like in 2011). Notably, spikes of votes at whole-number percentages have decreased; yet, they are still well above the significance threshold, as calculated by Kobak. 

The spike of 95% turnout is the e-voting in Moscow. 



Whole Russia

The State Duma election 2021


Regions 

Both methods break in strongly falsified regions. On the right, it happens at the fraud level about 50%. On the left, it can hold on longer; however, the accuracy is unpredictable. 

Altai Krai

The State Duma election 2021


The Republic of Altai

The State Duma election 2021


Amur Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Arkhangelsk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Astrakhan Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Bashkortostan 

The State Duma election 2021


Belgorod Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Bryansk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Buryatia

The State Duma election 2021


Vladimir Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Volgograd Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Vologda Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Voronezh Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Dagestan

The State Duma election 2021


Jewish Autonomous Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Zabaikalsky Krai

The State Duma election 2021


Ivanovo Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Ingushetia

The State Duma election 2021


Irkutsk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Kaliningrad Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Kalmykia

The State Duma election 2021


Kaluga Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Kamchatka Krai

The State Duma election 2021


Karachai-Circassian Republic

The State Duma election 2021


Kabardino-Balkar Republic

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Karelia 

The State Duma election 2021


Kemerovo Oblast – Kuzbass 

The State Duma election 2021


Kirov Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Komi

The State Duma election 2021


Kostroma Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Krasnodar Krai

The State Duma election 2021


Krasnoyarsk Krai

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Crimea

The State Duma election 2021


Kurgan Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Kursk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Leningrad Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Lipetsk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Magadan Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Mari El Republic

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Mordovia

The State Duma election 2021


Moscow Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Moscow City

The State Duma election 2021


Murmansk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Nenets Autonomous District

The State Duma election 2021


Nizhny Novgorod Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Novgorod Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Novosibirsk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Omsk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Orenburg Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Oryol Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Penza Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Perm Krai

The State Duma election 2021


Saint Petersburg City

The State Duma election 2021


Primorsky Krai

The State Duma election 2021


Pskov Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Rostov Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Ryazan Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Samara Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Saratov Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Sakha Republic (Yakutia) 

The State Duma election 2021


Sakhalin Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Sverdlovsk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Sevastopol City

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Northern Ossetia – Alania  

The State Duma election 2021


Smolensk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Stavropol Krai

The State Duma election 2021


Tambov Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Tatarstan

The State Duma election 2021


Tver Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Tomsk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Tula Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Tyva 

The State Duma election 2021


Tyumen Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Udmurt Republic

The State Duma election 2021


Ulyanovsk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Khabarovsk Krai

The State Duma election 2021


Republic of Khakassia 

The State Duma election 2021


Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District – Yugra 

The State Duma election 2021


Chelyabinsk Oblast

The State Duma election 2021


Chechen Republic

The State Duma election 2021


Chuvash Republic – Chuvashia 

The State Duma election 2021


Chukot Autonomous District

The State Duma election 2021


Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District

The State Duma election 2021


Yaroslavl Oblast

The State Duma election 2021

Мнение выражает личную позицию автора и может не совпадать с позицией движения «Голос».